End of Emergency in Myanmar: Implications for India

Context

Myanmar's military government has announced the end of the nationwide emergency imposed since the February 2021 coup. Also, general elections are being planned within six months.

Background

• The Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) overthrew the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) in February 2021, alleging voting fraud.
• After this, an emergency was imposed in Myanmar, allowing the military to rule by order.
• Since then, the country has been witnessing widespread protests, violent repression and a civil war-like situation with ethnic armed groups.

Recent developments

• The National Defence and Security Council has announced that the state of emergency has officially ended.
• Government chief Min Aung Hlaing has indicated preparations for elections by early 2026.
• Political parties have been asked to register under a new election law drafted by the military.

Challenges

• Lack of political credibility: Many political observers and Western governments have expressed doubts about free and fair elections.
• Widespread conflict: Ethnic armed organizations and the parallel National Unity Government continue to oppose military rule.
• Opposition suppression: Hundreds of politicians, including Aung San Suu Kyi, are either in jail or disqualified.

Implications for India

Border security concerns

• The ongoing instability in Myanmar could increase cross-border insurgent activities in India's northeast, especially in Manipur, Nagaland and Mizoram.
• Northeast India's insurgent groups like NSCN-K and other armed groups have safe havens in Myanmar and can take advantage of the chaos.

Refugee inflow

• Thousands of refugees have already taken refuge in Mizoram and Manipur due to political violence and military action.
• India may face humanitarian and logistical challenges in controlling the influx of refugees in future.

Disruption in connectivity projects

• Projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand (IMT) highway may get delayed due to insecurity.
• This hampers India's Act East policy and regional integration goals.

Strategic balance required

• India has to maintain diplomatic balance while promoting democratic values while negotiating with the junta for regional stability.
• It is imperative to avoid excessive dependence on the West or China for influence in Myanmar.

China's growing influence

• The political vacuum in Myanmar could provide an opportunity for China to expand its influence, especially through infrastructure projects and support to the military regime.
• It affects India's strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region and the immediate neighbourhood.

ASEAN and regional diplomacy

• The crisis in Myanmar challenges the credibility of ASEAN, thereby affecting India's engagement with the grouping.
• India should coordinate with ASEAN, Japan and other countries to ensure a stable and democratic Myanmar.

Humanitarian and ethical dilemmas

• India's abstention from UN resolutions on Myanmar has been criticised.
• Balancing non-interference, national interest and democratic values is diplomatically sensitive.